What do you get the team that seems to have it all?
“I think we can always get better,” Bryce Harper said the other day, a few hours before the Phillies won … again. “Right?”
Sure. That’s how Dave Dombrowski sees it. In 30-something years at the wheel of baseball operations for five organizations, he has almost never stood pat. Even as the 2018 Red Sox blazed to 108 wins, he swung July deals for a starting pitcher (Nathan Eovaldi) and a second baseman (Ian Kinsler), both of whom helped Boston win the World Series.
If Dombrowski could add to that team, he almost certainly can find ways to strengthen this one, even as the Phillies zipped into the weekend with a best-in-the-majors 31-14 record.
» READ MORE: The Phillies’ young core has helped form MLB’s deepest roster. Just like Bryce Harper wanted.
Another leverage righty would aid a bullpen that ranked in the bottom half of the majors through Thursday with a 4.26 ERA, including Seranthony Domínguez’s 6.60 mark. Domínguez hasn’t commanded his sinker and allowed three homers on his slider.
J.T. Realmuto’s recent three-game absence because of a sore right knee amplified the lack of upper-level catching depth in the organization. Maybe the Phillies decide to add a left-handed bat to the bench. Or, if Brandon Marsh remains unproductive against lefties, they could upgrade the righty-hitting side of what would become a left-field platoon.
(Worth noting: The Phillies are roughly $19 million from the $277 million third tier of the luxury tax, which gives them room to maneuver.)
Now, it isn’t even Memorial Day, and the trade deadline isn’t until July 30. It’s a long way from here to there. It feels almost preposterous to be brainstorming potential swaps.
Except that the nose-diving Marlins have already posted a for-sale sign. Two weeks ago, they jettisoned two-time defending batting champion Luis Arráez to the Padres, after which general manager Peter Bendix conceded that Miami is “unlikely to make the playoffs this year.”
The projection systems agree. Fangraphs, for instance, put the Marlins’ playoffs odds at 0.2% on Friday morning, only slightly bleaker than the A’s (0.4%), Nationals (1.0%), and Angels (1.6%). The White Sox’s and Rockies’ chances were in line with Bluto’s “Animal House” grade-point average: 0.0.
Never mind, then, that it’s only the middle of May. Those half-dozen teams, which represent 20% of the majors, might as well open for business now. One problem: They lack true difference-makers, other than A’s closer Mason Miller (with five years of club control beyond this season, he would bring back a haul of prospects) and injured White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr.
» READ MORE: Murphy: Three underrated needs for the Phillies at the trade deadline, which is more important than ever
As usual, the trade market will be shaped more by middling teams on the postseason bubble than the no-shot tomato cans. Consider the stir caused Wednesday night by Mets owner Steve Cohen. In a reply to a post on X (formerly Twitter) that advised him to “blow it up,” Cohen wrote: “All in the future, not much we can do until trade deadline.”
Uh, so maybe now isn’t the time to surprise your Mets-fan friend with a new Pete Alonso City Connect jersey.
Cohen walked it back the next day, telling the Mets television network that he isn’t waving any white flags. But he also deleted his tweet and said he intended to send it as a direct message, so who knows how he really feels, especially after his team just went 2-5 against the Braves and Phillies?
» READ MORE: The Phillies are off to their best start since 1993. How will they handle being frontrunners?
Regardless, the third wild card in each league makes it easier than ever to make the playoffs. And after the Phillies and Diamondbacks won the last two NL pennants as the final team to clinch a spot, most fringe contenders figure to wait until closer to the deadline before deciding whether to buy or sell.
Here, then, are four teams that could go either way — with players who might be useful to the Phillies:
St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 18-25, through Thursday
Playoff odds: 14.5%, via Fangraphs
Last year, amid their first losing season since 2007, the Cardinals sold at the deadline. But they only traded players with expiring contracts. The idea: Reload around the existing core rather than rebuild.
Maybe it’s time for a more drastic overhaul.
» READ MORE: Homegrown Phillies Alec Bohm and Ranger Suárez don’t want to go anywhere. Here’s the extension case for each.
For a second consecutive year, St. Louis is off to a brutal start, falling behind the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central. And it got even worse two weeks ago, when slugger Willson Contreras broke his arm.
If the Cardinals don’t pull it together, the focus will be on whether Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado waive their no-trade clauses. But the biggest asset is closer Ryan Helsley, a righty with a 100-mph heater who saved 13 of the Cardinals’ first 18 wins.
The Phillies famously dinged Helsley for four runs in the ninth inning of Game 1 of the 2022 wild-card series. But he’s among the most dominant closers in the game — and controllable through 2025, which should enable the Cardinals to fetch a premium prospect.
Houston Astros
Record: 19-25, through Thursday
Playoff odds: 52.8%, via Fangraphs
After seven consecutive appearances in the AL Championship Series, it was always going to take more than a 12-24 start and a slew of pitching injuries to turn the Astros into deadline sellers.
Sure enough, five consecutive wins — and seven wins in eight games — entering the weekend have them firmly back in the hunt in the AL West.
» READ MORE: Inside baseball’s arms crisis: What can be done to curb the game’s spate of pitching injuries?
But just in case the Astros stub their toe again, they would have bullpen assets to dangle at the deadline.
The addition of closer Josh Hader in free agency shoved Ryan Pressly into a setup role in which he has struggled. And then there’s righty Bryan Abreu, who posted a 1.84 ERA in 127 appearances over the last two seasons and is back to dominating again after a rocky start.
At this point, though, there’s a better chance the Astros will keep their super bullpen intact, wait for their injured starters (José Urquidy and eventually Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia) to return, and take aim at the Mariners and Rangers for another division crown.
Detroit Tigers
Record: 21-22, through Thursday
Playoff odds: 21.9%, via Fangraphs
Remember when they were a popular spring-training pick to emerge from a dark decade in Detroit and contend for the AL Central crown? Well, the division is unexpectedly competitive, and the Tigers are trending in the wrong direction, with nine losses in 12 games entering the weekend.
If it turns out the Tigers can’t hang with the Guardians and Twins — and maybe even the Royals — they could cash in a few solid bullpen arms. The Phillies’ pitching department loves hard sinkers. Tigers closer Jason Foley has a good one.
» READ MORE: J.T. Realmuto has escaped a few injuries already. What would the Phillies do without him?
But let’s talk about positional players. Carson Kelly, for instance, was once a starting catcher in Arizona. As a backup, would he represent an upgrade over popular Garrett Stubbs? Maybe, but probably not enough to outweigh the Phillies backup’s intangibles.
If the Phillies commit to a left-field platoon, Whit Merrifield or Cristian Pache might be suitable to pair with Marsh. But they like Merrifield’s versatility. And Pache’s skill set (elite defense, work-in-progress at the plate) closely resembles Johan Rojas’.
Mark Canha has always possessed on-base skills and is hitting lefties this season. He’s making $11.5 million in the last year of his contract and could fit somewhere as a rental if the Tigers fall out of the race.
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 19-23, through Thursday
Playoff odds: 22.8%, via Fangraphs
It’s difficult to find a more confounding team than the Jays.
They have a solid group of veteran starters (José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi) and a deep, powerful lineup. Somehow, though, they haven’t won a series since April 19-21 and began the weekend in last place.
OK, so Bo Bichette appears to be heating up at last, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is bound to tap into his power. But the AL East is loaded, with the Orioles and Yankees at the head of the class. If the Blue Jays don’t recover soon, they’ll be too far behind.
» READ MORE: Bryce Harper vs. Mike Trout, 12 years in: What drives them to be great, and will they ever join forces?
In that case, righty Jordan Romano would become an interesting name. He began the season on the injured list with elbow inflammation and allowed runs in three of his first six outings in May, largely because he hasn’t missed as many bats with his fastball.
But over the last three years, Romano ranked seventh among qualified relievers with a 2.37 ERA and fourth with 95 saves, and had a 30.3% strikeout rate. Would a contending team bite for the 31-year-old, who is signed through next season?
Check back in two months. Although as the Marlins — and perhaps the Mets, inadvertent as Cohen’s tweet might have been — have shown, it isn’t too early to think about it.
