Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2025

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 14 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

The service time figures included are not official.  Also, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.  Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.

The projections:

Angels (12)

• Griffin Canning (5.075): $5.1MM
• Luis Rengifo (5.043): $5.8MM
• Taylor Ward (4.164): $9.2MM
• Patrick Sandoval (4.149): $5.9MM
• Jose Quijada (4.046): $1.1MM
• Brock Burke (4.045): $1.2MM
• Jose Suarez (4.022): $1.2MM
• Carson Fulmer (3.108): $1MM
• Jo Adell (3.085): $2.1MM
• Matt Thaiss (3.038): $1.3MM
• Mickey Moniak (3.027): $1.8MM
• Reid Detmers (2.159): $1.9MM

Astros (10)

• Framber Valdez (5.163): $17.8MM
• Kyle Tucker (5.079): $15.8MM
• Jose Urquidy (5.049): $3.75MM
• Mauricio Dubon (4.162): $4.6MM
• Luis Garcia (4.083): $1.875MM
• Bryan Abreu (4.022): $3.7MM
• Chas McCormick (4.000): $3.3MM
• Jake Meyers (3.044): $2.2MM
• Jeremy Pena (3.000): $4.4MM
• Penn Murfee (2.169): $800K

Athletics (5)

• Austin Adams (5.150): $1.7MM
• Miguel Andujar (5.053): $2.8MM
• Seth Brown (4.096): $3.8MM
• Brent Rooker (3.059): $5.1MM
• Dany Jimenez (2.162): $1MM

Blue Jays (10)

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5.157): $29.6MM
• Erik Swanson (5.059): $3.2MM
• Jordan Romano (5.051): $7.75MM
• Genesis Cabrera (5.011): $2.5MM
• Dillon Tate (4.144): $1.9MM
• Daulton Varsho (4.128): $7.7MM
• Alejandro Kirk (4.047): $4.1MM
• Alek Manoah (3.063): $2.4MM
• Zach Pop (2.171): $1MM
• Ernie Clement (2.168): $1.7MM

Braves (6)

• Ramon Laureano (5.159): $6.1MM
• Cavan Biggio (5.110): $4.3MM
• Huascar Ynoa (3.117): $825K
• Jarred Kelenic (2.169): $2.3MM
• Dylan Lee (2.150): $1.2MM
• Eli White (2.140): $800K

Brewers (10)

• Hoby Milner (5.068): $2.7MM
• Aaron Civale (5.058): $8MM
• Devin Williams (5.056): $7.7MM (Brewers hold $10.5MM club option/$250K buyout)
• Jake Bauers (4.084): $2.3MM
• Bryse Wilson (4.036): $1.5MM
• Joel Payamps (4.027): $2.8MM
• Eric Haase (3.159): $1.8MM
• William Conteras (3.112): $7.6MM
• Nick Mears (3.022): $900K
• Trevor Megill (3.002): $2MM

Cardinals (6)

• Ryan Helsley (5.105): $6.9MM
• JoJo Romero (4.045): $1.9MM
• John King (3.145): $1.5MM
• Lars Nootbaar (3.076): $2.5MM
• Brendan Donovan (3.000): $3.6MM
• Andre Pallante (2.145): $2.3MM

Cubs (14)

• Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
• Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
• Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
• Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
• Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
• Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM
• Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
• Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
• Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
• Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
• Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
• Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
• Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
• Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM

Diamondbacks (8)

• Zac Gallen (5.100): $14.1MM
• A.J. Puk (4.124): $2.6MM
• Ryan Thompson (4.095): $2.9MM
• Kevin Ginkel (4.033): $2.3MM
• Joe Mantiply (4.029): $1.6MM
• Kyle Nelson (3.076): $800K
• Geraldo Perdomo (3.015): $2.1MM
• Pavin Smith (3.015): $1.6MM

Dodgers (9)

• Dustin May (5.059): $2.135MM
• Michael Kopech (5.041): $5.2MM
• Brusdar Graterol (4.167): $2.7MM
• Tony Gonsolin (4.152): $5.4MM
• Evan Phillips (4.136): $6.2MM
• Gavin Lux (4.114): $2.7MM
• Alex Vesia (4.078): $1.9MM
• Connor Brogdon (3.139): $800K
• Anthony Banda (3.135): $1.1MM

Giants (4)

• Mike Yastrzemski (5.128): $9.5MM
• LaMonte Wade Jr. (5.035): $4.7MM
• Tyler Rogers (5.034): $5.5MM
• Camilo Doval (3.071): $4.6MM

Guardians (9)

• Josh Naylor (5.127): $12MM
• Lane Thomas (5.014): $8.3MM
• James Karinchak (4.099): $1.9MM
• Triston McKenzie (4.002): $2.4MM
• Sam Hentges (3.157): $1.4MM
• Nick Sandlin (3.157): $1.6MM
• Eli Morgan (3.091): $1MM
• Steven Kwan (3.000): $4.3MM
• Ben Lively (2.133): $3.2MM

Marlins (6)

• Jesus Luzardo (4.165): $6MM
• Anthony Bender (3.153): $1.4MM
• Jesus Sanchez (3.118): $3.2MM
• Braxton Garrett (2.168): $1.8MM
• Nick Fortes (2.149): $1.6MM
• Edward Cabrera (2.147): $2.2MM

Mariners (12)

• Austin Voth (5.115): $2.2MM
• JT Chargois (5.101): $1.7MM
• Luis Urias (5.014): $5MM
• Trent Thornton (4.148): $2.1MM
• Randy Arozarena (4.129): $11.7MM
• Josh Rojas (4.126): $4.3MM
• Sam Haggerty (4.036): $900K
• Logan Gilbert (3.144): $8.1MM
• Tayler Saucedo (3.112): $1MM
• Cal Raleigh (3.085): $5.6MM
• Gabe Speier (2.172): $900K
• George Kirby (2.151): $5.5MM

Mets (8)

• Paul Blackburn (5.018): $4.4MM
• Luis Torrens (4.105): $1.1MM
• Tyrone Taylor (4.093): $2.9MM
• David Peterson (4.089): $4.4MM
• Alex Young (4.085): $1.4MM
• DJ Stewart (3.144): $1.7MM
• Sean Reid-Foley (3.133): $900K
• Tylor Megill (3.031): $2.1MM

Nationals (9)

• Tanner Rainey (5.127): $1.9MM
• Derek Law (5.081): $3MM
• Ildemaro Vargas (5.007): $1.8MM
• Kyle Finnegan (5.000): $8.6MM
• Luis Garcia Jr. (3.142): $4.8MM
• Josiah Gray (3.075): $1.4MM
• Mason Thompson (3.046): $800K
• Riley Adams (3.005): $1.1MM
• MacKenzie Gore (3.000): $3.5MM

Orioles (15)

• Gregory Soto (5.102): $5.6MM
• Cedric Mullins (5.078): $8.7MM
• Jorge Mateo (5.000): $3.2MM
• Matt Bowman (4.137): $1.3MM
• Ryan Mountcastle (4.105): $6.6MM
• Cionel Perez (4.085): $2.1MM (Orioles hold $2.2MM club option)
• Keegan Akin (4.083): $1.4MM
• Trevor Rogers (4.075): $2.8MM
• Jacob Webb (4.046): $1.7MM
• Ramon Urias (4.025): $3.1MM
• Tyler Wells (3.132): $2.1MM
• Dean Kremer (3.112): $3.5MM
• Emmanuel Rivera (3.026): $1.4MM
• Adley Rutschman (3.000): $5.8MM
• Kyle Bradish (2.160): $2.1MM

Padres (8)

• Luis Arraez (5.121): $14.6MM
• Dylan Cease (5.089): $13.7MM
• Tyler Wade (5.058): $900K
• Michael King (5.004): $7.9MM
• Adrian Morejon (4.140): $1.8MM
• Jason Adam (4.132): $5.3MM
• Luis Patino (3.061): $800K
• Luis Campusano (2.144): $1.7MM

Phillies (9)

• Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
• Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
• Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
• Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
• Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
• Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
• Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
• Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
• Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM

Pirates (9)

• Dennis Santana (4.126): $1.8MM
• David Bednar (4.076): $6.6MM
• Ben Heller (3.165): $1MM
• Connor Joe (3.136): $3.2MM
• Johan Oviedo (3.079): $1.5MM
• Bryan De La Cruz (3.056): $4MM
• Joey Bart (3.020): $1.8MM
• Colin Holderman (2.144): $1.4MM
• Bailey Falter (2.138): $2.8MM

Rangers (5)

• Nathaniel Lowe (4.145): $10.7MM
• Jonah Heim (4.097): $4.8MM
• Dane Dunning (4.078): $4.4MM
• Josh Sborz (4.055): $1.3MM
• Leody Taveras (3.124): $4.3MM

Rays (12)

• Colin Poche (5.114): $3.4MM
• Zack Littell (5.043): $4.8MM
• Tyler Alexander (5.011): $2.8MM
• Drew Rasmussen (4.111): $2MM
• Dylan Carlson (4.104): $2.7MM
• Cole Sulser (4.031): $1MM
• Taylor Walls (3.092): $1.3MM
• Garrett Cleavinger (3.060): $1.4MM
• Ben Rortvedt (3.043): $1.1MM
• Jose Siri (3.015): $2.3MM
• Richard Lovelady (3.008): $900K
• Shane Baz (2.158): $1.9MM

Red Sox (3)

• Tanner Houck (3.100): $4.5MM
• Jarren Duran (2.155): $4.9MM
• Kutter Crawford (2.136): $3.5MM

Reds (10)

• Ty France (5.089): $8.6MM
• Tejay Antone (5.000): $1.1MM
• Santiago Espinal (4.149): 4MM
• Jake Fraley (4.097): $3.3MM
• Tyler Stephenson (4.056): $5.2MM
• Austin Wynns (4.017): $1.4MM
• Ian Gibaut (3.077): $800K
• Sam Moll (3.075): $1.1MM
• Alexis Diaz (3.000): $4.2MM
• Nick Lodolo (3.000): $2.2MM

Rockies (10)

• Dakota Hudson (5.141): $2.3MM
• Cal Quantrill (5.132): $9MM
• Austin Gomber (5.111): $5.6MM
• Brendan Rodgers (5.075): $5.5MM
• Jake Cave (5.071): $1.8MM
• Peter Lambert (4.083): $1.5MM
• Sam Hilliard (4.023): $1.7MM
• Lucas Gilbreath (3.148): $900K
• Justin Lawrence (2.167): $1MM
• Ryan Feltner (2.143): $2.6MM

Royals (10)

• Josh Taylor (5.121): $1.1MM
• Hunter Harvey (5.047): $3.9MM
• Brady Singer (4.156): $8.8MM
• Kris Bubic (4.135): $2.8MM
• Kyle Wright (4.062): $1.8MM
• John Schreiber (4.027): $2MM
• Carlos Hernandez (3.099): $1.2MM
• Kyle Isbel (3.043): $1.7MM
• MJ Melendez (2.153): $2.5MM
• Daniel Lynch IV (2.136): 1.1MM

Tigers (11)

• Tarik Skubal (4.114): $8MM
• Casey Mize (4.111): $2MM (Tigers hold $3.1MM club option/$10K buyout)
• Jake Rogers (4.040): $2.5MM
• Will Vest (3.100): $1.4MM
• Zach McKinstry (3.099): $1.3MM
• Jason Foley (3.033): $3.5MM
• Matt Vierling (3.026): $3MM
• Akil Baddoo (3.003): $1.6MM
• Alex Lange (3.003): $1.3MM
• Andy Ibanez (2.170): $1.5MM
• Beau Brieske (2.134): $1.3MM

Twins (13)

• Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
• Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM (Twins hold $1.5MM club option/$55K buyout)
• Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
• Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
• Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
• Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
• Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
• Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
• Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
• Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
• Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
• Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
• Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM

White Sox (9)

• Nicky Lopez (5.139): $5.1MM
• Matt Foster (4.093): $900K
• Garrett Crochet (4.028): $2.9MM
• Enyel De Los Santos (4.015): $1.7MM
• Andrew Vaughn (4.000): $6.4MM
• Justin Anderson (3.122): $1.1MM
• Jimmy Lambert (3.108): $1.2MM
• Gavin Sheets (3.076): $2.6MM
• Steven Wilson (3.000): $1MM

Yankees (10)

• Jon Berti (5.168): $3.8MM
• Tim Mayza (5.129): $4MM
• Nestor Cortes (5.094): $7.7MM
• Jose Trevino (5.063): $3.4MM
• Trent Grisham (5.060): $5.7MM
• JT Brubaker (5.000): $2.275MM
• Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.075): $6.9MM
• Mark Leiter Jr. (4.031): $2.1MM
• Clarke Schmidt (3.148): $3.5MM
• Scott Effross (2.156): $900K

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