FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 9/17/22

Staff report


Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel’s main slate and help give you a starting point when you’re building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you’re looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups — we’ve got you covered!

Pitchers

Aaron Nola ($10,600)

At his second lowest salary point since August 13th after a 3.6% drop, Philadelphia’s right-hander has a tough but favorable strikeout matchup versus an Atlanta Braves‘ unit with a .339 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 25.7% K-rate.

In his last seven starts, Nola has performed around his seasonal expected metrics (2.84 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP), 2.80 expected earned run average) with a 2.38 xFIP, a 12.3% swinging strike rate, and a 29.9% strikeout percentage in his most recent 40.2 innings.

With seven or more strikeouts in his past three appearances against Atlanta and today’s second highest strikeout prediction at 6.85, there are numerous reasons to back Nola’s 33.8 FanDuel point projection versus his division rivals.

Shohei Ohtani ($10,400)

In his third encounter against a Seattle Mariners‘ lineup with a .338 wOBA and a 23.4% K-rate, Ohtani is currently ranked first overall with a 38.3 FanDuel point projection and second in value with a 3.68 rating.

Through his most recent 41.2 innings despite an illness shorten start during this time period, the Angels’ hard-thrower has maintained a 25.1% strikeout percentage and a 3.66 xFIP while exceeding seven or more Ks in 57% of his last seven starts.

Considering his previous track record versus Seattle (2 earned runs allowed, 14 strikeouts in 12 total innings) and today’s top strikeout expectation at 7.49, Ohtani is a sky-high ceiling play at his median salary in the last two months.

Julio Urias ($9,900)

Despite four straight quality starts, Urias’ salary has remained stagnant in a favorable spot against a San Francisco Giants‘ team with a .248 wOBA and a 26.6% K-rate in their last 173 plate appearances versus southpaws.

While some regression may be heading his way when comparing his 3.91 xFIP to his 1.26 earned run average in his last seven starts, the 26-year old has absolutely dominated his intrastate competitors, allowing only two earned runs in 24.0 innings this season.

Chris Bassitt ($9,700)

In a mouth-watering matchup against a Pittsburgh Pirates‘ lineup with a .249 wOBA and a 31.0% K-rate including seven hitters with strikeout percentages ranging from 24.3% to 31.6% and a low 70.9% contact rate, New York’s veteran offers the most potential value at his lowest salary since August 3rd with a 3.77 rating and a 36.5 fantasy expectation.

Stacks

Houston Astros

Despite his success in his five previous starts versus the Astros (11 earned runs allowed in 30.2 innings this season), Houston’s offense remains an important decision point with today’s top run total at 5.2.

When evaluating his clear struggles against right-handed bats on the road (4.75 xFIP, .360 wOBA), ideal Houston combinations should first include Jose Altuve (7.8% barrel rate, .428 expected slugging), Alex Bregman (8% barrel rate, .356 expected wOBA), Trey Mancini (10% barrel rate, .420 expected slugging), and Aledmys Diaz (7% barrel rate, .413 expected slugging) while Kyle Tucker (10.4% barrel rate, .482 expected slugging) and a red-hot Yordan Alvarez (.680 expected slugging, 20.9% barrel rate) provide leverage versus Irvin’s 4.54 xFIP against lefties while pitching away.

New York Mets

In their second encounter versus Bryse Wilson, the Mets also rank as a top stack on Saturday’s 9-game main slate with an expected run total standing at five.

Through his most recent 67.0 innings, the Pirates’ right-hander has performed at a below-average level, accounting for a 4.50 xFIP, a 13.5% K-rate, and a 8.0% opposing barrel rate while also allowing a career 5.59 xFIP to the opposing side of the plate.

With this main weakness to attack, Francisco Lindor (.338 expected wOBA, .434 expected slugging), Brandon Nimmo (.339 expected wOBA, .405 expected slugging), Dan Vogelbach (10.6% barrel rate, .350 expected wOBA), Tyler Naquin (10.5% barrel rate, .442 expected slugging), Eduardo Escobar (9.3% barrel rate), and Jeff McNeil (.279 expected average) are all quality stacking candidates while Pete Alonso (12% barrel rate, .484 expected slugging) offers the most power from the right side.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Sean Hjelle will make his first Major League start at home in a very challenging spot against a Dodgers’ offense with a 5.1 run total.

While Hjelle’s MLB resume is limited, his Triple-A metrics the past seasons including a 5.23 xFIP in 97.0 innings (2022) and 6.19 xFIP in 53.1 innings (2021) create nothing but skepticism towards his potential success at the highest level.

To best counter his command issues (11.7% walk rate in 2021, 8.6% in 2022) and heavy ground-ball tendencies (54.1% in 2021, 56.7% in 2022), patient Dodgers’ hitters with high fly-ball rates are the best targets for stacking including Mookie Betts (45.3% fly-ball percentage, .347 wOBA), Will Smith (.361 expected wOBA, 47.3% fly-ball rate), Max Muncy (.333 expected wOBA, 46.2% fly-ball rate), Justin Turner (.342 expected wOBA, 42.3% fly-ball percentage),and Joey Gallo (51.5% fly-ball percentage, 17.9% barrel rate).





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