The Philadelphia Phillies made waves last week when they dismissed manager Joe Girardi after a 22-29 start that had Philadelphia on pace to miss the postseason for the 11th straight season. The move to replace Girardi with Rob Thomson has paid immediate dividends as the Phils are 6-0 since the move and are -145 favorites to make it 7-for-7 on Friday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Kyle Gibson will get the assignment for Philadelphia, and the 34-year-old has been solid, if not spectacular, for the Phillies through his first 11 outings.
Gibson has posted a pedestrian 4.40 ERA in 57.1 innings, but his 3.64 xERA and 3.43 xFIP suggest he’s been a bit unlucky, and his ERA should positively regress towards the high 3’s.
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: ARI +1.5 (-160) vs. PHI -1.5 (+135)
Moneyline: ARI (+120) vs. PHI (-145)
Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies probable pitchers
Zac Gallen (2.40) vs. Kyle Gibson (4.40)
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction
For most of his career, Gibson was known as a soft-contact pitcher who had trouble racking up K’s and had a bad home run habit, but he’s seemingly found something with the Phillies as he’s improved his strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run per 9 innings compared to his career numbers.
Even with his improvement, Gibson will be the B-side in this pitching matchup as he looks to best Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. Gallen has posted a 2.40 ERA in 56.1 innings this season, and even though his K/9 rate is down almost three strikeouts per 9 innings from last year, he’s actually shaved 1.9 runs off his ERA. That’s because Gallen has developed into a whiz at inducing groundballs, is allowing more than half as many home runs per nine innings and has cut his hard-hit rate by 10%.
Gallen will be going up against a Phillies lineup with some pop, but Philadelphia’s overall numbers don’t sparkle against right-handed pitching. The Phillies have posted a .314 wOBA and 101 wRC+ against righties this season, which puts them 14th in both categories.
Arizona’s offense lags Philadelphia in both categories, but Gallen projects as the better pitcher, which should hopefully allow the Snakes the opportunity to stick around in this one.
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The Phillies are red hot after making a managerial switch and now will be faced with the question of whether it was just a dead-cat bounce or if the improvements are legitimate.
This is a good opportunity to sell high on the Phillies against a pitcher who should be able to contain their lineup. Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model makes this game pretty much a toss-up, so getting +125 on the Snakes looks like a fair bit of value.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies pick
Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) — BetMGM
