5 wise MLB wagers for Sept. 17 and Sept. 18, 2022

Staff report


By
www.mlb.com

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.

With Saturday featuring a pair of doubleheaders, there are loads of MLB betting options on DraftKings Sportsbook this weekend. Here are five that stand out.

Altuve lining up against a lefty always puts this play on the radar. He’s hitting .323 with a ridiculous .331 ISO against southpaws this year. The big reason for all that power is the amount of hard contact he’s making (43.9 percent) while getting the ball airborne (35.9 percent ground-ball rate).

Now, Cole Irvin is not a lefty he’s done much against in the past. Altuve only has three extra-base hits against him (all doubles) in 24 plate appearances. However, Irvin has given up nine doubles, three home runs and a .281 average to righties in his last five starts. They’ve seldom hit balls on the ground (33.3 percent) during that span, too. That all spells out for a nice day from Altuve, who is due after failing to log a hit in back-to-back games

The Mets just got a look at Wilson as a bulk reliever on Sept. 7 and plated three runs against him. While that doesn’t guarantee anything, it’s been a pretty safe bet to back Wilson giving up three-plus earned runs this season. He’s done so in each of his past six outings, 12 of his 17 starts and two of his four relief appearances –14 of his 21 outings, all told.

It took six innings for the Mets to get to this number on Friday, but Mitch Keller is a much tougher matchup than Wilson. And while the Mets haven’t been the most powerful lineup against righties as of late, they’ve been far from the worst. They’re also hitting a lot of line drives (22.7 percent in September) and remain one of the toughest lineups for righties to strike out (17.1 percent K rate this month), which both indicate they’re in for another good day against a right-hander who has given up a 25 percent line-drive rate across his last five starts and never strikes out many hitters.

There aren’t many teams that have longer odds to win this weekend and it’s totally understandable. The Cardinals have one of the best offenses in baseball, they always do well at home and St. Louis has only lost one José Quintana start since acquiring him. Hunter Greene started to figure things out before hitting the injured list, but he’s had trouble with the Cardinals throughout 2022. But, there are a couple of reasons Cincy is appealing in the second game of their Saturday doubleheader.

As much as Greene is coming off injury, the Reds took their time with him. He might still be on a somewhat tight pitch count, but he should still have length to his outing — in part, because of Game 1.

Mike Minor has had some good outings, but there’s no doubt St. Louis is a tough matchup for him. Things should go well for the Cards in Saturday’s first game, but then they have to make a big shift and face a hard-throwing righty in the nightcap after having played two full games inside of 24 hours.

And while Reds hitters will have dealt with the same workload, they’ll get their preferred matchup on Saturday night. Since Aug. 15, Cincy has a .187 ISO against left-handed pitching.

It’s not every day you get a chance to back the Braves as underdogs. It makes sense they’re not favored here — Aaron Nola is the far superior pitcher in this meeting. However, Atlanta has done a good job supporting Jake Odorizzi at Truist Park, winning four of his six home starts since his blowup vs. the Angels on April 20.

Speaking of rough outings, the Atlanta right-hander is coming off one, as he gave up four earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings vs. Seattle on Sept. 11. But in Odorizzi’s starts that follow outings in which he gave up four or more runs, the Braves are 4-1. In each of those wins, he’s gone at least six innings and given up no more than one run.

Also, quite a few Braves hitters have good numbers against Nola. While he might get his fill of strikeouts on Saturday, it’s going to be tough navigating a lineup he has history with while they’re crushing right-handed pitching (.219 ISO this month).

Although a .600 winning percentage is strong, one might think the Yankees are better than 18-11 when Gerrit Cole starts this year. But if you ignore their tough August, that record improves to 17-6 and things start to make more sense.

In looking at the 18 wins, Cole has largely received strong support from his potent offense. Twelve of the Yankees’ 18 victories in Cole’s starts have been by multiple runs. With New York’s offense turning a corner once September started (.194 September ISO against right-handed pitching) and the Brewers regressing from a power perspective against righties after going off in August, the Yanks are in position for another multi-run win.

Also, Milwaukee is turning to Jason Alexander on Sunday. The Brewers are 4-6 when he starts — and they’ve lost four of those games by multiple runs. He also served as the bulk reliever once for Milwaukee and the Brewers lost that one by multiple runs, too.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Next Post

'The Sporting News 7' podcast: Talking NFL opener, Frances Tiafoe, Liverpool embarrassment and more

The Sporting News www.sportingnews.com

Subscribe US Now